Fifth Down

NFL Football returns this week with the first round of preseason games. Yes, I know the hall of fame game already happened but they didn’t even finish it because of rain, none of the starters played a snap and it was just one game…well two thirds of a game so it doesn’t really count. But now it starts to get real. We are just 4 weeks away from the season kicking off. And with the return of football comes the return of Fifth-Down…whether you wanted it or not. Over the next 4 weeks, I’ll be bringing you my breakdowns of each division and probably some other fun stuff along the way. We kick things off with the East.

NFC East

1st Place: Philadelphia Eagles

No one has won this division in back to back years since Andy Reid was coaching the Eagles. The Cowboys won it last year after the Eagles imploded the second half of the season. Yes, they lost Jason Kelce so maybe the push tush won’t be used quite as often. But they got Saquon Barkley and already had the best roster in the division. I am sure they will be pissed about how last year ended which should give them a lot of motivation to not suck it up this year. Sure there are rumors swirling that the coach and QB don’t get along…if they played in a different division that might matter but as I look at all their rosters and schedules I don’t see anyone else winning this division.

Reason they will win the East: I have little to no faith in anyone else in the division. They have the best offensive weapons and a good enough defense.

Reason they won’t win the East: Nick Siranni is kind of a weirdo and I am still not sure how great of a coach he is. He makes some dumb decisions to cost them games they should win and lands them another wild card instead of the division and gets fired after the season because Hurts and everyone else hates him.

Fantasy Players to Draft:

We can argue about how good Jalen Hurts is compared to other quarterbacks in real life but in fantasy football he is definitely a top dog. He has great weapons to throw to and runs for lots of touchdowns. You definitely want to draft Barkley because he will be real good for the 10 games he is healthy. AJ Brown and Devontae Smith should definitely be drafted as well. Dallas Goedert is being quietly underrated going into the season because he got hurt late. Please don’t draft him in the late rounds because I am going to. Basically any starters for this team are draftable.

Predicted Record: 12-5

2nd Place: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are going all in according to Jerry Jones. Apparently going all in now stands for doing nothing. Dallas lost some decent players and really didn’t bring anyone in that is real exciting. CeeDee Lamb is holding out for a new contract and Jerry just said he is in no rush to get a new contract done. I mean he still has 4 weeks before the season starts and Ceedee doesn’t need to practice. “We talking about practice!” They traded out Tony Pollard for Ezekiel Elliot who returns even older and slower than when he left. And everyone will continue to try and convince us that Dak is great but sadly we will not be convinced. Add on to this a pretty challenging schedule and I don’t see these Cowboys making the playoffs.

Reason they will win the East: We are all actually wrong about Dak. He plays awesome and wins the division.

Reason they won’t win the East: Dak is who we think he is. The schedule is harder and the team is worse than last year.

Fantasy Players to Draft: CeeDee Lamb should be an early pick assuming he is playing at that point. Dak is serviceable at QB if CeeDee is playing if not, maybe stash him as QB 2 incase CeeDee comes back or your starter gets hurt. Jake Ferguson gets a lot of red zone looks and if Lamb doesn’t sign then his value rises.

Predicted Record: 9-8

3rd Place: Washington whatever they’re called now

The Commanders are interesting this year. Dan Quinn has been a pretty good head coach in the past. They brought in Kliff Kingsbury to try to get more women fans and to run the offense. He will be airing it out for better or worse. They have a rookie quarterback who can run around. He’s sort of like when Kliff had Kyler Murray in Arizona. Only this time his quarterback can see over the line. They have some good skill players and in theory good defensive players even though they haven’t performed that well over the last couple of years in that department. Finishing last in 2023, gives them a less than daunting schedule. I think this is a team that begins to find it’s groove about half way through the season and is a team we talk about making the playoffs in 2025.

Reason they will win the East:

They start better than I expect and Kliff’s handsomely good looks create tension with all the other team’s players and coaches and their spouses as they spend too much time arguing and not enough time in their own playbooks.

Reason they won’t win the East:

It’s too soon at best and at worst this the same disaster of an organization that we have been watching for the last couple of decades.

Fantasy Players to Draft: Jayden Daniels might win you the season. He also might be terrible. Terry McLaurin should have a big year if Daniels is good at all, it will be a massive year. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are both running backs worth drafting to fill in your bench spots.

Predicted Record: 8-9

4th Place: The New York Football Giants (that are actually in New Jersey)

The Giants were not good last year. They didn’t get better this year. The schedule isn’t too rough and I do think Brian Dabol is a good coach. I just think they are the least talented team in the division. Daniel Jones is not good. They lost their best offensive player. I don’t have a lot of good things to say about them. But hey, maybe they won’t suck quite as bad as I think they will.

Reason they will win the East:

All the other teams have major injuries and Dabol coaches his way to a division winner.

Reason they won’t win the East:

The offense is looking rough as expected.

Fantasy Players to draft: Devin Singletary because they have to hand off to someone. Malik Nabers because they have to throw to someone. That’s all I got.

Predicted record: 6-11

AFC East:

1st Place: Buffalo Bills

Look, I get it. On paper the Bills look a little worse. They lost some guys on defense and their best receiver. On paper, the Jets and Dolphins look better than the Bills. So why do I have the Bills in first? Quite simply, I don’t trust the Jets or the Dolphins. And I do trust Josh Allen during the regular season. He’s still the QB I trust the most in the division. I think he has more weapons than we give them credit for, more on that in the fantasy football section. And they have a defensive minded coach that will help the defense be good enough. So the Bills are headed to the playoffs so they can have another heart breaking loss to the Chiefs. Congrats, Bills.

Reason They will win the East:

Josh Allen balls out like normal. Their young talent develops quickly and the other east teams do their normal falling apart tricks.

Reason they won’t win the East:

Josh Allen regresses and goes back to being a turnover machine, the Jets and/or Dolphins live up to their hype and all Bills fans are happy because they don’t have to watch their team lose in a heart breaking way to the Chiefs yet again.

Fantasy Players to draft: Josh Allen obviously. Love him or hate him, Josh Allen is a top fantasy quarterback. James Cook is a very good running back that should have an even better year this year although he loses some touchdowns to Allen. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues because he catches a lot of passes. You should draft either Shakir, Cobrun or Samuel at receiver…which one? Your guess is as good as mine. Kincaid at tight end should have a breakout year.

Predicted Record: 11-6

2nd Place: New Jersey Jets

I was going to put the Jets in 3rd place. Then I realized they won 7 games last year with just disastrous quarterback play. It seems like with Aaron Rodgers they should be able to win 2 or 3 more games. Nothing would surprise me with the Jets. If they went 5-12 I wouldn’t be shocked. If they went to the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t be shocked. I don’t trust Rodgers health or his ability to win in the playoffs. I don’t trust their offensive coordinator either. I saw enough of him in Denver to know he is a disaster. He is buddies with Rodgers which means Rodgers is basically the offensive coordinator and I don’t trust him in that role either. But they got talent and should be much better offensively. The beginning of the schedule after game 1 is pretty easy and the end of the schedule is pretty tough. They win more division games than the Dolphins to squeak out the 2nd place finish.

Reason they will win the East:

Rodgers stays healthy and plays lights out, the defense stays the same. The find a number 2 receiver somewhere and they play as well as the media wants them to.

Reason they won’t win the East:

Rodgers gets hurt 4 minutes into the first game. Or he stays healthy but doesn’t play as well and is his normal weird not so great teammate self.

Fantasy Players to draft: I am very high on Breece Hall. That dude can play. I drafted Garrett Wilson because I thought he would have a breakout year with Rodgers at QB. He did not, but was still decent. I am sure if you draft him and I don’t he will be the highest scoring receiver in the league. Rodgers could be a sneaky good pick in the later rounds especially in deeper leagues where you might want to grab a second QB.

Predicted Record: 10-7

3rd Place: Miami Dolphins

I like the Dolphins. I have liked the Dolphins since Dan Marino was playing for them when I was a kid. They just don’t win stuff. I mean they win games. But they don’t win playoff games. They have a lot of fun players and are entertaining but they just don’t win when it matters most. Tua is decent but not great. And they can’t play in the cold which makes it really hard to win playoff games in Buffalo, KC, and Baltimore. Because of all those things, I think they will be in the playoff hunt but won’t win the division.

Reason they will win the East:

Their talent finally gets it done and doesn’t disappoint everyone when it matters most. Tua plays better than we think he is and Tyreek and the gang stay healthy.

Reason they won’t win the East:

They do what the Dolphins always do…get their fan base all excited and then lose in the wild card round or just miss the playoffs.

Fantasy Players to draft: This is where the Dolphins are winners. Draft Tyreek Hill…duh. Waddle, yes. Achane, yes. Mostert, yes. Jonnu Smith is a good tight end to draft late. Tua isn’t a terrible QB to have either because he has so many weapons to throw to.

Predicted Record: 10-7

4th Place: New England Patriots

This is a bad football team. I mean they don’t have a lot going for them. They weren’t good last year. Or the year before. Or the year before that, really. Now they lost the best coach ever after losing the best quarterback ever. So things are not looking good. I’d like to give Patriots fans hope…actually I don’t care about Patriot fans. Tough break, suckers. You can all continue to instead waste your time posting about why Tom Brady is still the Goat even though even he wanted to leave your crappy team.

Reason they will win the East:

The other 3 teams simultaneously fall into the Atlantic Ocean.

Reason they won’t win the East:

The other 3 teams don’t simultaneously fall into the Atlantic Ocean.

Fantasy Players to draft: their running back, Stevenson…if you absolutely have to. That’s literally the only guy I would consider.

Predicted Record: 4-13

Tune in next week for the AFC and NFC North!

Well we are one day away from the big game. I am sure you are all as excited as I am. The 49ers have been the best team in the NFC all year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs waited until the playoffs to finally play good functional football. It’s a rematch of 4 years ago. All the Super Bowl hoopla is behind us and it is almost game time. Here are some final thoughts and my official prediction of the game. 

1. What’s at stake:

The 49ers were once 5-0 in the Super Bowl but haven’t won one since 1994. They are 0-2 since Steve Young and the gang hoisted the Lombardi. Kyle Shanahan is regarded as one of the best coaches in the league but doesn’t have a championship and has a big blown lead as a head coach and offensive coordinator. Also, their window isn’t closing but it will get harder. They will have to start paying or replacing some of their younger players. Brock Purdy is probably not going to keep playing for 800k a year. So this is a big opportunity for them to get a win in before things get hard salary cap wise. On the flip side, the Chiefs have somehow managed to get to the big game for the 4th time in 5 years with the highest paid QB in the league. A dynasty is on the line because if you win 3 and 2 in a row that apparently is what a dynasty is. Andy would leap a few coaches in the greatest coach category and Pat would solidify himself as no worse than 3rd greatest QB ever after playing only 6 years. CBS has shots of Taylor Swift on the field after the game at stake. 

2. Underdogs all around:

The Chiefs are underdogs according to Vegas for the 3rd game in a row. They are already 2-0 and they are ridiculously good as underdogs as I mentioned earlier this week. They relish the role and they have also become the villain somehow so anyone that is not a Chiefs fan or a swift fan, is going to be cheering against them. But now the 49ers can be the underdog because everyone is picking the Chiefs. This is mostly due to the fact that they are tired of picking against them and losing. Even the hated Skip Bayless picked the Chiefs. Although I believe this is mostly so he can argue with Richard Sherman on Monday. Some guy named Craig Carton is adamantly against us apparently since his clips keep showing up on my Facebook feed. He works for FS1 so he has learned that divisive takes are the only ones that count in this business. But other than him, the predictions are highly in favor of the Chiefs. Whoever wins is going to talk about how everyone is against them so that is fun.

3. The Halftime show will suck:

Usher wasn’t good 20 years ago. He hasn’t gotten better. If LiL John doesn’t make an appearance it will be even worse than expected. I am sure he will have some surprises and I saw a rumor that Justin Bieber might make an appearance. So it could be a whole chorus of formerly popular creepy men. Can’t wait.

4. Some commercials will be woke and some people will complain:

The Commercials used to be the fun part of the Super Bowl until they all stopped trying to be funny and instead started to push an agenda. I don’t really care what the agenda is. I do care about laughing. Luckily, about the same time this started happening, the Chiefs started winning so I didn’t care that much. This year is no different. But I am sure there will at least be a few commercials that will put half the nation into an outraged state. My wife is very passionate about some of these things. So I wait for her to tell me what I am no longer allowed to buy or which stores I am no longer allowed to shop in. I don’t care about those things but I do care about my wife being happy. Much easier to get a different beer than it is to get a different wife.

5. No matter what happens…Jeff’s sad time is coming:

As much as I love the Chiefs winning and them being in the Super Bowl, football is almost over. Sure there is Free Agency and the draft but overall this will be my sad sports time until next fall when it all starts again. But this is also what is great about football. Baseball, Basketball, Hockey are all extremely long seasons. I have never uttered the words “it’s already over?” about any of those sports. But I already can’t wait for the next football season. 

The Big Game:

Well, lets get too it. This game should be a great one. The 49ers have been playing close games lately and the Chiefs only play close games. There are stars and story lines all over the field and even in the stands. You couldn’t ask for a better game. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will be on the call and much like the Chiefs, Romo was once loved and now hated for some reason. The stage is set and after all this week’s shenanigans I am sure the teams are as ready as ever to actually play football. This will be a back and forth battle. Both teams are great and I think it will be close to the end. 

Reasons for the 49ers to have hope:

They have the best roster in football. They have the best offensive player in football. They have the best skill players in football. They have good edge rushers against the Chiefs terrible tackles. The game is on CBS. The Chiefs are 0-1 in the Super Bowl on CBS and 2-0 on Fox. They are due.

Reasons for the Chiefs to have hope:

Patrick Mahomes. Best defense the Chiefs have had in a long time and the best second half defense in the league. Playoff Kelce. Andy Reid, Spags and did I mention Patrick Mahomes. They are a more balanced team than they have been in the past. They got Taylor Swift cheering for them. I’ll have my Mahomes jersey on…and oh yeah, they got Patrick Mahomes. 

Prediction:

The 49ers will want to get off to a fast start which they have failed to do the last 2 games. Meanwhile the Chiefs have started fast but had trouble scoring in the second half all year.  I think the Chiefs get on the board first with a td and then the 49ers answer with a field goal. The Chiefs answer back with a fg of their own. After a couple of punts back and forth, the 49ers tie it up with a td. The chiefs get a fg to close out the half and lead 13-10. The 49ers get the ball to start the second half and drive down to take the lead 17-13. The Chiefs go 3 and out and the 49ers drive again but the defense holds and they have to settle for a fg. After a few punts back and forth, the Chiefs drive down and Mahomes hits Kelce to tie it up at 20. The 49ers are on the move but stall out around the 50 yard line. They decide to pin the Chiefs deep with 4 and half minutes to go. Mahomes leads them on a meticulous Brady like drive eating up the entirity of the clock to set up Butker for a 34 yard field goal that he kicks perfectly through the upright for a Chiefs victory. Mahomes is MVP and the Chiefs win back to back for the first time in nearly 20 years and a Dynasty is finalized. 

Chiefs 23 49ers 20

Yesterday I told you why the 49ers will win on Sunday. Now it is the returning champs turn. Here are 10 reasons why the Chiefs will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. 

1. Vegas, Baby!

The Chiefs have never lost in this stadium. Technically the 49ers haven’t either but they are just 1-0. The Chiefs are 4-0 and have never scored less than 31 points. If they score 31 points on Sunday, they will remain undefeated in Vegas.

2. Mahomes has never lost in a dome.

Mahomes is 11-0 in domes and has thrown for over 3,000 yards. There are lots of ridiculous stats around Mahomes and this one is no different. He looks to make it 12-0 on Sunday at a dome where he is 4-0 already. 

3. Playoff Travis Kelce

Kittle was the best tight end in the league but Playoff Travis Kelce is the greatest tight end ever. He has more catches than anyone in the history of the playoffs. He is just 3 touchdowns away from tying Jerry Rice for most td receptions ever. The guy is somehow always open. The 49ers tend to mostly play zone defense. Travis is very good at finding the holes in the zone.

4. They are the underdogs.

Mahomes and the Chiefs thrive as an underdog. He is 9-3 in his career as an underdog. First lets take a moment to appreciate the fact that in 6 years as a starter and 6 deep playoff runs he has only been an underdog 12 times. In the past 6 years they have played a whole other season of football. So in approximately 119 games, the Chiefs have been the underdogs 12 times. It gets better. He is 10-1-1 against the spread. He has only been the under dog at home once and on the road or neutral site, he is 10-0-1 against the spread. In the past 20 years, the Chiefs became the 9th team to win both a divisional round game and the championship game as underdogs. The previous 8 teams went 6-2 in the Super Bowl. And both the Bengals and Cardinals lost very close games in their Super Bowl losses. All this favors the Chiefs as 2.5 underdogs.

5. Lived long enough to become the villain. 

The Chiefs have all of the sudden become the villain. They win a lot. They supposedly get all the calls, although that is statistically inaccurate but who cares about stats. And people are annoyed by them being successful and being everywhere, commercials, AFC championship games, super bowls, etc. But the Chiefs have embraced the role. They relished playing the spoiler on the road in the playoffs. You could tell they were excited about the boos on Monday night. They love the us against the world mentality. Usually the villain loses. But this game will end Empire Strikes Back style. 

6. Brock Purdy forgets his fake ID and isn’t allowed to play in the game or get in the stadium.

I swear Purdy doesn’t look a day older than my 15 year old son. I know he has been picked on a lot by the media. Is he a game manager? Is he carried by his super stud teammates? Is he old enough to drive? All these questions will be answered Sunday when he faces a Spags led defense that has always thrived against young quarterbacks. That is assuming they let him in the stadium. 

7. Chiefs defense is elite, the second half defense is insane

The 49ers better not start slow like they did the last two games. The Chiefs second half defense has been dominant. They allowed zero points against the Dolphins, 7 points against the Bills and 3 points against the Ravens. And they were playing great defense in the second half for several weeks before that. If the Chiefs are winning at halftime, they are probably going to win the game.

8. No passes are thrown to Kadarius Toney

I doubt he is active for the game but if he is…for the love of all things can we not throw him the ball? He is a turnover machine because he simply cannot catch. Maybe hand off to him at the most. But preferably, lets just leave him off the field altogether. 

9. I’ll be wearing my Mahomes Jersey

I have always sort of laughed at grown men wearing the uniforms of other men and usually younger men at that. I will soon be 45 years old. I have a successful career, a college degree (although that took twice as long as most people), a happy marriage and two great kids. I don’t need to envy some 25 year old just because they can run a 4.4 40 yard dash or dunk a basketball. But last year around Christmas time, Danielle asked me what I wanted and I said, I kind of want a Mahomes jersey. She was surprised but my justification is that he may not actually be human. He is some sort of super being that defies all football logic. Anyway, I got the jersey. I only break it out for big games when I feel like the team needs me. Since rocking my Mahomes Jersey in the playoffs, We are 6-0 and Pat hasn’t thrown an interception. I am not saying me wearing the uniform of a 28 year old dude has anything to do with that. But I am not taking any chances.

10. Patrick Lavon Mahomes II

I could list gaudy stat after gaudy stat with him. I already listed a few above. I am a homer and I know it. But I also really do try to look at things subjectively, I mean I don’t work for Fox Sports so my opinions aren’t completely biased. I almost picked the Bills to beat the Chiefs in the divisional round. But then I thought, Pat is not going to lose his first road playoff game. Then I almost pulled the trigger on picking the Ravens to win. But then I thought who is more likely to play well in a game of this magnitude? Pat or Lamar? I landed on Pat. Now he goes up against the best roster in football. They have so many weapons and a solid qb who seems to play his best late in games. Their defense is star studded. But what they don’t have is Playoff Pat. That is not a knock on Purdy. He’s just not Pat. No one is. Pat is the best at doing things he has never done. He now has the chance to win back to back championships which he has not done. In fact no one has done it since 2003-2004. But last year he broke the MVP curse. So why can’t he break this drought? Also, no QB who was the biggest hit on their team’s salary cap hit has ever won the Super Bowl. Pat can be the first on Sunday. At the end of the day, you throw out the stats, the x’s and o’s and all football logic when Pat is on the field. 

Tune in tomorrow for my final thoughts and predictions for the game. 

The Big game is 4 days away. We have two great teams ready to battle and both have a realistic chance at winning. Today I give you 10 reasons the 49ers will hoist the Lombardi trophy on Sunday.

1. White Jerseys

Did you know that teams who have worn white jerseys are 16-3 in the Super Bowl in the last 19 match ups. The Chiefs are the home team and they stupidly chose their red jerseys. It’s like they think the color jersey they wear as absolutely no effect on the game. I mean if the stupid Bucs had picked their home jerseys we would have already won back to back championships. But I am sure Tom Brady was like, I’ve done the research guys…we want to be wearing white. There is one issue though for the 49ers though…they are one of the 3 teams to lose to the Chiefs while wearing white. But surely that won’t happen again. 

2. CMC

I don’t know if you know this but this McCaffrey guy is good at sports. He scored a touchdown in like 147 straight games or something. He is the best non quarterback in the game and in my opinion should win the MVP this year. He had over 2,000 yards form scrimmage and had 21 touchdowns. The guy quite frankly can do it all. The Chiefs Defense is really good but if they have two weaknesses it is defending the run and defending running backs out of the backfield. Yikes.

3. Revenge Game

The 49ers have to be bitter about how they lost the super bowl game last time. They had a 10 point lead with 7 minutes left in the game and lost by 11. I would say that is an all time fail…but Shanahan once did one better as a coordinator having a 28-3 lead at the half and didn’t score again  While they certainly have some different players, they have enough left over players that will be extra motivated to not just win but to win against the Chiefs.

4. It’s real hard to win back to back

No one has won back to back championships in the NFL since 2003-2004. That is crazy and shows the parody and competitiveness of the league. It’s what makes football the greatest sport. Every year you feel like your team has a chance to win it because no one wins it consecutively. Spoiler alert, your team is probably not winning it next year. So the task that the Chiefs are taking on, isn’t an easy one. This works in the 49ers favor. 

5. Good edge rushers vs bad tackles

The 49ers have Nick Bosa and Chase Young. The Chiefs have Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith who are penalty machines. They have been better of late which is why I am sure the 49ers are pushing the “holding” narrative before the game even starts. Expect the Chiefs tackles to get holding calls early and often.

6. A Male musician at halftime.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with lady singers. The first time with J-Lo and Shakira (in case you forgot) and the second time with Rhianna. However, when The Weekend performed they lost. This year the 49ers are saying YEAH! because Usher is performing. They are hoping this turns out OKAY! for them. If it doesn’t, the 49ers might just have to let it burn. But we won’t know for sure until they reveal their confessions. 

7. Everyone is betting the Chiefs

This is perhaps the most concerning thing for me.  The Chiefs are underdogs by 2-2.5 points. This means that 49ers have to win by a field goal or more to cover. The majority of the betting is currently on the Chiefs but the number hasn’t moved. I don’t believe in scripted or conspiracies when it comes to football. But I also believe that the house never loses. So I don’t like this trend. 

8. Shanahan is due.

Kyle Shanahan is a great coach. Arguably one of the top 5 coaches in the league. He has blown too big leagues in the super bowl. Good coaches eventually win, case and point Andy Reid. Kyle is due. 

9. Kittle is a match up nightmare.

Kittle is the best tight end in the league this year. Our linebackers are good in coverage but no one is good at covering Kittle. Kittle and CMC having big days will be a problem for the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been good at covering tight ends in the playoffs. But none of those tight ends are named George Kittle. 

10. The world is tired of the Chiefs.

All the winning is a lot, but then you have commercials with Pat and Travis and Andy in them pretty much every commercial break. Then you add in Taylor Swift and all that comes with her. It is too much for the world to take and so the 49ers must break it. At least that is what everyone but Chiefs fans is hoping. 

Tune in tomorrow to see 10 reasons why the Chiefs will win. 

We all remember the Tom Brady’s and Joe Montana’s but here are 10 Super Bowl heroes that helped lead their team to glory that you may have forgotten.

Otis Anderson Super Bowl XXV

Anderson spent most of his career with the then St. Louis Cardinals. He rushed for over a thousand yards in his first 5 out of 6 seasons. Injuries slowed him down and then he was traded to the Giants. He played the back up role for a couple of years but then took over the starting role in 1989 and ran for a thousand yards again. In the Super Bowl against the Bills, the Giants game plan was to eat up the clock and keep the ball away from the high flying, fast paced Bills. It would have not worked without Otis who ran 21 times for 102 yards and a touchdown. He was the MVP although you could also give that title to Scott Norwood who missed the winning kick for the Bills as we just recently heard the same saying…”Wide Right!” I remember as a kid thinking how could you miss it? It was only 47 yards and my brother who was a kicker in high school and college made a 47 yarder in high school that same season. I was like dude, my brother can make that. Granted the stage and pressure may have been slightly different. Bonus shout out to Jeff Hostetler for starting in Phil Sims place since he got hurt, and playing well. And for rocking the mustache after the 80’s run of having a mustache being cool and prior to the latest trend of having a mustache being cool the last couple of years ago. Thank goodness that trend seems to be over. 

Brad Johnson Super Bowl XXXVII

Johnson benefited from an elite defense but this wasn’t a Trent Dilfer story. Brad could play and put up stats where ever he went on his journeyman career. He was Ryan Fitzpatrick before it was cool to be Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had a great year which helped the Bucs get to the Super Bowl. He had the lowest interception rate in the league and set team records for touchdowns, completion percentage and most consecutive passes without an interception. In the Super Bowl, the defense did dominate intercepting Rich Gannon 5 times. But Brad played well going 18 for 34 for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has more super bowl rings than Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Warren Moon and Dan Fouts combined. 

Larry Brown Super Bowl XXX

Larry Brown played corner back for the Cowboys opposite Deion Sanders. You may not remember him but he was actually the MVP of this super bowl because Steelers QB Neil O’Donnell kept throwing the ball right to him. Larry had two second half interceptions that sealed the deal for the Cowboys as they scored 2 touchdowns off the short fields. Larry used the fame of being the Super Bowl MVP to get the Raiders to overpay him because the Raiders are good at overpaying people. He didn’t do much there as he got benched and suspended and only ended up playing in 12 games for the Raiders over 2 years. It’s a classic Raiders story.

Timmy Smith Super Bowl XXII

This is known as the Doug Williams game. Doug became the first black quarterback to start in the Super Bowl and he won MVP and put on a show in the highest scoring second quarter in Super Bowl history. After the Broncos got out to a 10-0 lead the Redskins scored 35 points in the second quarter including 4 touchdown passes by Williams. The ironic part is that Williams wasn’t even supposed to be the starter but he took over the job from Jay Schroeder. Everyone knows that story but everyone forgets that George Rodgers their starting running back got hurt so Timmy Smith started the super bowl. All Timmy did was set a record for most rushing yards in a Super Bowl that still stands today. Timmy ran 21 times for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns for a ridiculous 9.27 yards per carry. Any other game he would have been Super Bowl MVP. What makes the whole story that much more strange is that outside of the Super Bowl, Timmy rushed for a whopping 602 yards and 3 touchdowns in his whole career. So in one game, he did a 3rd of the production he accomplished in his career. It remains one of the oddest and greatest performances in Super Bowl history. 

Damien Williams Super Bowl LIV

Hey remember 5 years ago when the Chiefs won their first super bowl in 50 years against this very same 49ers team? We talk about Mahomes in that game and jet chip wasp and how Jimmy G missed a “wide open” Emanual Sanders. You know what we have all forgotten about? Damien Williams. he rattled off 104 yards on 17 carries and caught 3 passes for 29 yards. He also scored the td that gave them the lead and a second touchdown to seal the deal. Honestly he probably should have been the MVP. And then we just moved on from him which I would say was a bad idea but he joins the long list of Chiefs who have left not named Tyreek Hill, that didn’t do squat after leaving. 

Roger Craig a whole bunch of Super bowls

When you play with one of the top 3 Quarterback’s ever and the greatest receiver ever, it is easy to get forgotten. But Roger Craig was a beast. The dude was the best dual threat running back in the league outside of Walter Payton. He played in and won 3 super bowls and here are his lines from those 3 games:

Super Bowl XIX: 15 carries for 58 and 1 td, 7 catches for 77 yards and 2 tds. Set the record for most points and tds scored in a game.

Super Bowl XXIII: 17 carries for 71 yards and 8 catches for 101 yards. That is 182 yards from scrimmage. If Montana hadn’t led a game winning drive and Jerry Rice hadn’t had 215 yards receiving Craig would be a shoo in for MVP.

Super Bowl XXIV: 20 carries for 69 yards and 1 td and 5 catches for 34 yards. This was by far his worst performance and he still had over 100 yards from scrimmage and a td. At the end of this game he had the super bowl record for most tds, receptions and points in a career. 

Roger could flat out play and arguably should be in the hall of fame. In 1985 he had over a thousand yards rushing and receiving. He was doing things CMC does way back when I was 6 years old!

Terrell Owens Super Bowl XXXIX

Everybody forgets his role in this game because they lost but dude caught 9 balls for 122 yards…on a broken leg!!! Enough said. 

Mike Jones Super Bowl XXXIV

The greatest show on turf was almost the greatest team to never win one. We get movies about Kurt Warner and all the accolades go to the offense that had Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt. 3 hall of famers and probably some day a 4th. But this game was headed to over time if Mizzou Alum Mike Jones doesn’t come off his man to make a td saving tackle as time expired. MIZ! ZOU! This is how much I love Mizzou, I am willing to write about a St. Louis team’s victory. But don’t worry, they would dump St. Louis later as all football teams do and go back to LA. Honestly, Mike isn’t all that forgotten because they show this play a bunch. But it was my chance to mention Mizzou and take a jab at St. Louis so I had to put him on the list. 

James White Super Bowl LI

The greatest comeback in Super Bowl History was led by Tom Brady but couldn’t have happened without James White. White had 6 carries for 29 yards and 2 tds but also had a whopping 14 receptions for 110 yards and a td. He scored the last 2 touchdowns of the game and caught the 2 pt conversion that sent the game to OT. If Tom Brady wasn’t his QB he would have been the MVP. 

Jacoby Jones and electricity Super Bowl XLVII

Jacoby Jones caught 1 pass in this game for a 56 yard touchdown in the first half. He then took the second half kickoff for 108 yards for the score. I am not sure what Jacoby did before or after this game but he accounted for 12 of the Ravens 34 points on 2 plays. And since they won by 3 I’d say that is pretty important. This was also the power outage game that took the game from being a blowout to being a great game. When the power went out early in the 3rd quarter the score was Ravens 28 and 49ers 6.  During the power outage, the 49ers obviously stole the Ravens playbooks or something because they battled back scoring 23 points and just missing a 2 point conversion to tie the game. But it wasn’t quite enough as the Ravens won by 3. 

Tune in tomorrow when I give you 10 reasons why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl. 

We kick off Super Bowl week with some fun. Every year some famous or semi famous person comes out at halftime dances around, sings a few songs and creates a lot of jobs for people putting things on the field and then taking them back off again 20 minutes later. It makes the whole extravaganza event that much more special or painful depending on the game and show. I’ve been watching the Super Bowl since the super bowl shuffle in 85. These are what I think are the top 10 most memorable performances I have seen. Enjoy.

10. Super Bowl XLII Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers

It was fitting that the Heartbreakers played at half time as this was the Super Bowl that the 18-0 New England Patriots finally lost. I know most of my readers probably rejoiced as the Patriots were a hated team even then. But if you know me at all, you know one of the things that bugs me the most is the 72 Dolphins celebrating together every time the last undefeated team loses. I won’t rant too much about this, but lets just say I am not big on celebrating other people’s defeats. Unless it is the Raiders, Bengals or Cowboys of course. Anyway, this was a great game with a historical loss so Tom Petty sort of got lost in the fray. Danielle and I had just moved to Minnesota and were still in corporate housing in downtown Minneapolis where it was like -25 degrees outside. If you have never been to Minneapolis then you don’t know that there are tunnels for people to walk around to get from one building to the next because it is so cold. Danielle calls them the gerbil tunnels. Anyway, this was prior to kids and we didn’t know anyone so Danielle and I watched together and had fun despite the team I was cheering for losing. Part of the fun was watching my boy Tom Petty perform. I have so much respect for anyone who is that ugly that can find a way to be that successful. I also appreciate the fact that they didn’t mess around with crap songs or new stuff. American Girl, I won’t back down, Free Fallin and Running down a dream and then they were out. I still argue that if you had to pick one artist to listen too while driving across the country it would be Tom Petty. 

9. Super Bowl LII Justin Timberlake

This was another loss by the Patriots this time to Nick Foles and the Eagles. I have mixed emotions about Timberlake in general. The dude can flat out perform which you have to appreciate. Some friends of ours bought Danielle and I tickets to see him around this time. We went to see him and the show I think was supposed to start around 8 pm. I am pretty sure he didn’t come out until like 11. No opening act. I mean, you are talented but come on. 3 hours later he rolls out. Plus in 2017 I was 38. I’m in bed by 11 pm, bro. Starting that late was enough to make me cry a river. You can’t deny the arrogance but you can’t deny the talent, either. Dude puts on a good show and the Super Bowl was no exception. He is also the only musician to find his way on this list multiple times. Unfortunately none of those times were renditions of his songs with the lonely island gang.

8. Super Bowl LIV Shakira and J-Lo

I like Shakira. She seems nice. Plus her hips don’t lie and I like an honest woman. On a side note, this was the first time I saw the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and I remember everything about this game including Shakira.

7. Super Bowl XLIX Katy Perry

Katy also had guests Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliot join her. I remember there being people dressed up as animals and lots of moving elements. It really was quite a big show which was pretty cool. It was a good time and my wife liked it and that is always a win. 

6. Super Bowl LI Lady Gaga

Speaking of things my wife liked, I give you the Lady Gaga halftime show. After a barrage of performances of artists bringing out special guests and bands, Lady Gaga said, I got this. I don’t need anyone else. She is a weird person but she can sing and she can perform. She sang parts of almost all of her hits and put on a tremendous show. My wife was very pleased. 

5. Super Bowl LV The Weekend

Remember, this list is most memorable, not the best. I don’t particularly like The Weekend. Well, I mean I love the actual weekend but I am not a big fan of the musician The Weekend. But I won’t forget this show. Not because it was good but because it was weird and awkward because there was hardly anyone at the show. Quite honestly this will probably go down as my least favorite Super Bowl. The Chiefs lost in a blow out. Covid was in full effect. And I am not a fan of Covid. And the Weekend performed to an empty stadium making sure that all the performers stayed 6 feet apart or whatever the nonsense was at the time. Was it good? No. Will I forget it? No matter how hard I try to forget that dreadful day I cannot. 

4. Super Bowl LVI Dr. Dre and company

After recovering from the Chiefs self destructing second half in the AFC Championship, I was able to enjoy exactly two parts of this Super Bowl. The first was the halftime show and the second was Joe Burrow and his smug little face and all his cocky teammates losing. Little known fact about me but I love gangsta rap, particularly 90’s gangsta rap. So this was the perfect show for me. Dr. Dre, Snoop and Eminem…what more could you ask for? Well I could ask for less Kendrick Lamar in the show but hey, we can’t have it all. This also created one of my favorite all time memes where there is a picture of the guy from Pawn Stars and a customer asking for a Tupac hologram and the Pawn Star guy responds, “best I can do is upside down fifty cent.”  The other great moment of this is when my wife said, “I was excited about this show because usually the halftime show is designed to the target audience of middle aged Americans and this is targeted at us instead. Then I realized we are middle aged Americans.” Anyway, this was a great overall halftime show. 

3. Super Bowl XXVII Michael Jackson

I remember this being a big deal. Before MJ, most of the halftime shows were bands and had some sort of theme. MJ doesn’t need a band or a theme. He was freaking Michael Jackson after all. This was 1993 so this was back when people were trying to figure out why he looked different but prior to people trying to figure out if he did bad things to kids. He is arguably the greatest performer of all time and the show did not disappoint. Rewatching it now, I am like the camera work isn’t great and the audio should be better. But in 1993 we were still watching stuff on box TVs and I didn’t even have cable yet. So at the time it was epic. And it changed the halftime shows forever. 

2. Super Bowl XXXVIII Janet Jackson and her boob

Sure, P Diddy, Kid Rock, Nelly and Jessica Simpson were involved but no one can tell you what they did or what they sang. But we all remember Timberlake and Janet dancing and singing seductively and then Timberlake ripping off a part of her outfit to reveal her boob. Once the repercussions came rolling in they tried to pawn it off as a wardrobe malfunction which it obviously was not. To make the moment more awkward I was at a Super Bowl party with kids watching with us. The moment happened fast but it was enough for everyone at the party to feel real awkward about it. If you thought it was uncomfortable watching Shakira dance around with that rope thing, imagine what it would be like if her boob fell out. Wait…don’t imagine that. Forget I said that. Anyway, if we are ranking the most memorable halftimes this would probably be #1 on most people’s list. But it comes in #2 for me. 

1. Super Bowl XXXVI U2

There is really nothing funny here. This was just a moment I will never forget. It was the Super Bowl following 9/11. U2 played Its a Beautiful Day followed by MLK and The Streets Have No Name. Usually the halftime show is a mix of little bits of lots of songs. But this was something different. During the music the names of the victims of the 9/11 scrolled behind them. It was a powerful moment and at the end Bono popped his jacket open to reveal the American Flag. It was an amazing tribute to the fallen. U2 is one of my favorite bands and the Streets Have No Name is probably my favorite song. It was an epic performance from an epic band at a moment where our country needed unity. Ironically Janet Jackson was scheduled to perform but because they had to change the date of the game due to the 9/11 events, Janet couldn’t do the event. We are all lucky that we got Bono flashing us the American flag instead of Janet flashing us her boob. 

The playoffs are over and there is just one game left, the Super Bowl. But we have to wait a whole other week to watch the big game. But never fear, there is still Football this weekend as we have the Pro Bowl event. There are skill position games, the Manning brothers are there and the whole thing concludes with a Flag Football game so none of the players get hurt. Fun fact, I once broke my face playing flag football. So without further ado, let me give you my insights and predictions for the Pro Bowl.

Pro Bowl on ESPN @ sometime on Sunday…I think.

Just kidding, I am not analyzing this thing. Literally, no one cares about this besides Eli and Peyton. Enjoy your football free weekend. Go for a walk, take your significant other on a date, read a book. Enjoy your weekend and get ready for Super Bowl Extravaganza of blogs this week leading up to the big game.

And then there were 2. The Chiefs and 49ers are headed to the Super Bowl. I’ll have lots of Super Bowl shenanigans all next week just like last year. But for now lets get to some reactions from this week’s games. 

1. The Chiefs D is legit:

The whole week all we heard about was how great the Ravens defense is. I knew the Chiefs would take that personally. Besides a couple of plays, they dominated the first half. Then in the second half they executed bend but don’t break coming up with massive plays when they mattered most. They have given up 32 total points in the second half of the last 8 games. The Ravens have been rolling everyone and they just held them to 10 points. After several years of the defense being the liability they are now the strength of the team. 

2. McCaffrey should be the MVP:

Look Lamar has had a fine season. But it feels like we are basically rewarding him for no longer sucking at passing. He’s a quarterback, he is supposed to be good at throwing. I know the MVP is a regular season award but on the biggest stage he fell flat again. McCaffrey on the other hand is the most important player on the best team in the NFC. He’s been dominant throughout the year and has a touchdown in like 147 straight games or something. He is the only non QB who can impact a game at a QB level. He was phenomenal in the championship game and all year long.

3. Best running team in the league decides not to run the ball:

Look, Lamar didn’t play great. But what were the Ravens thinking? The ran the ball 16 times the whole game. They handed the ball off 6 times to their running backs. It was like the whole point of the game was to show that Lamar is a good passer. Spoiler alert, he’s not that good. I am baffled by their play calling. Especially since if there is a weakness to the Chiefs D it is defending the run. Their Offensive Coordinator might need a new job after this one.

4. Dan Campbell loses for being Dan Campbell:

I understand the argument of do what got you here. The Ravens should have followed that advice. The problem is that sometimes who got you here is not who you should be in certain moments. The Lions have built their team on taking risks. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t. I get it. Here is the problem. Sometimes you have to make a conservative call. There were two calls that I really questioned. The first was going for it on 4th and 3 down 27-24. You have given up 20 unanswered points. You can tie the game and finally get something positive to happen for the first time all half. But instead you don’t get it and then the 49ers go down and score and you are down 10. The even worse call was on 3rd and goal with around a minute left you decide to run the ball. They didn’t get it and then you have to waist a timeout. This all but ends the game because you don’t have 3 timeouts to stop the clock and force the 49ers to at least get a first down. Just a terrible decision. They would have probably lost anyway but they would have at least had a shot. 

5. Patrick Mahomes is real good at football but playoff Pat is unreal:

He is 14-3 as a starter. He has gone to 6 straight AFC championship games. He hasn’t lost a non super bowl playoff game in regulation. He is now undefeated on the road. He has won 4 AFC Championship games and headed to his 4th super bowl. He is at his best in the biggest moments. He does whatever is needed to help his team win. He’s not perfect. I’m not saying he is the goat. I am saying he is by far the best player in the league and he is even better when it matters most. And somehow he ended up on my team. 

6. Lions are still losers:

Some teams are winners and some teams are losers. It happens every week in the NFL. But franchises are either winners or losers as well. It is hard to break through to the other side. The Lions are obviously not there yet. This is not a knock on the Lions. The Chiefs were in the same boat. In the 80s the team was a disaster. In the 90s the team was good but could never get over the hump. The 2000’s were filled with ups and downs. Then Andy Reid showed up. Then Patrick Mahomes showed up and everything changed. The same was true for the Patriots and Seahawks and other organizations that were bad for a long time. The Lions hadn’t won a playoff game since 1991. They haven’t won a championship since 1957. This was a nice season but they are not over the hump. A nice next step would be to make the playoffs again next year. But until they can win consistently or win something significant they are still losers. Lovable losers but losers none the less.

7. Road Warriors:

I think perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to the AFC was the Chiefs not getting the 1 seed. These guys over the past year have played so many extra games. In fact, over the past 6 years they have played a whole other season (17 games). It is tiring to play 3 or 4 extra games year in and year out. Homefield advantage is great but I think the Chiefs needed something new to ignite the team. They enjoyed being the villains, being booed, playing in a hostile environment. They embraced it all and bullied their way to another championship. They overcame the odds in Vegas, the Mahomes has never won on the road, they have never played in hostile enviroments like Buffalo and Baltimore, etc. etc.  They heard all the noise and rallied around it. I am honestly not sure they make it to the Super Bowl if they play those games at home.

8. Purdy was Purdy good:

I wouldn’t say I have been hard on Brock, but I have said and still say he is limited. He’s a good quarterback and with this team, you can win a lot of games when you are limited. He has a lot of weapons he can get the ball to. He’s also a smart kid and does a nice job managing the offense. What impressed me on Sunday was how he used his legs. He ran when he needed to and showed a lot of heart. He also showed a lot of composure handling a 17 point deficit coming out of the half. And for all the accolades we pour on Pat, we must remember that Brock is now 4-1 as a playoff starter and his one loss he barely played in the game. Now the question is can he win the game on the biggest stage.

9. The league is not rigged:

I saw the leaked script but it was incorrect. I also saw blame on the refs for the Ravens loss which is ridiculous. People are comparing what Kelce did after the TD to what Zay Flowers did to get a penalty. Travis stood up and looked in the defender’s direction and then turned away to spike the ball. He then sort of looked back at the defender but wasn’t all that close to him. Zay Flowers got up and pushed Sneed as he did so, stood directly over him and spun the ball by his head. Not the same thing. Travis also was an instigator all game. But it is always the second guy who gets caught. This is common knowledge. Also, they didn’t actually throw a flag on the second or even third guy. Van Noy hit Kelce’s helmet with his own. This will be a flag 100% of the time. All the other penalties on the Ravens were legitimate as well. What really happened was the Ravens tried to be the bully but the Chiefs didn’t care and so it didn’t work. In fact, quite early on the Chiefs used it against them by instigating and getting them pissed off and then they made bad decisions. Also, the league didn’t rig it to get Taylor Swift to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs beat the Ravens in every phase of football. That is all that happened. Being the regular season champ doesn’t mean you are the best team when it matters. The Ravens have proven this twice in the Lamar era.

10. Biden vs Trump Bowl:

If most of the population could have ranked their preferred super bowl match ups this one probably would have finished last. This will be the 49ers 8th trip and we all know that the world hates the Chiefs outside of Chiefs Kingdom. And on top of all that it is a match up that we just saw a few years ago. I am not here to muddy the waters or talk politics but I think we can all agree that most of the population is not exactly stoked for the Biden vs Trump rematch. Sure there are some people who really love Trump just like people really love the Chiefs. And then there are people who really hate Trump just like people really hate the Chiefs. Those people will be voting for Biden and cheering for the 49ers. But no one outside of Trump supporters and Trump haters is going to be real excited about the inevitable election of 2024. The same is sort of true of the Super Bowl this year. Luckily for me, I get to play the role of overly enthusiastic supporter for the big game.  But don’t worry my face won’t be painted, I won’t be wearing a big horn hat and I won’t be anywhere near the capital. I will be wearing my lucky Chiefs gear, drinking beer out of my Chiefs cup and running around my house handing out high fives anytime the Chiefs do something good. So when you are mad when the Chiefs are winning, just picture me being ridiculous and you will feel a little bit better about the villain winning. 

Next week there will be a Super Bowl Themed post each week day. So get ready for a Super Fifth-Down Week in preparation for the Super Bowl. And in the mean time, check out my pro bowl predictions later this week. 

And here we are, the last multiple game week of the football season. We have only 4 teams left. What happens this Sunday will determine the Super Bowl participants in Vegas. Will the last game of the season be the same as the first game, with the Lions and Chiefs playing? Will it be a rematch of Patrick Mahomes first super bowl with the Chiefs facing the 49ers? Will it be Dirty Detroit vs crime ridden Baltimore? Or will the leaked script prove to be true with the 49ers and Ravens battling it out. Well, here is my confession, the only thing I know for sure is Usher is doing the half time show, YEAH! But I am always here to make some ill advised predictions that you should probably not use for betting purposes. So let’s dive into the big games.

MVP vs MVPat: Chiefs @ Ravens on CBS @ 1 PM Mountain Time:

I am not sure what is going to happen in this game but I am confident that the winner of this is going to be the Super Bowl Champs. The Ravens have been the best team in the league for the majority of the year. They dominated the best of the best teams and most recently added a dominating playoff win over the Texans. They have the best defense in the league and the MVP of the year. It seems like the Ravens should win this easily. But the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are showing up playing their best football of the year. They are playing in their 6th straight conference championship game but their first one on the road. This game should be a great battle. You have the top 2 defenses, 2 two time MVP’s, great coaches and arguably the two most clutch kickers in the league. 

Reasons for the Chiefs to have hope: They have playoff Pat, the defense never gives up more than 7 points in the second half, they have a hall of fame coach and are playing their best football of the year.

Reasons for the Ravens to have hope: They have pretty much dominated all the good teams they have played. They have a dangerous and mobile running back who can throw the ball and an elite defense and don’t really have any injuries.

Prediction: Lots of people are predicting the Ravens to win in a blowout. There is just one problem the Chiefs don’t really get blown out. They don’t blow out anyone either. So look for another close game. The Ravens have more talent. The Chiefs have the best player in the league. Both defenses are top notch and good at making adjustments at halftime. I think this game comes down to whoever has a chance to kick last. The Chiefs drive down late and Butker hits a 41 yarder to take the lead by 3. With a minute left in the game, the Chiefs defense keeps the Ravens from crossing midfield and everyone who isn’t a Chiefs fan is really upset as Pat and the gang head back to the Super Bowl once again. 

Chiefs 27 Ravens 24

The Team that never makes it vs the The team that always makes it: Lions @ 49ers on Fox @ 4:30 Mountain Time

The 49ers are arguably the most successful franchise in the NFC. They won their first 5 super bowls and have been to 7 overall. The Lions have never been to a Super Bowl and in fact haven’t played in a championship game since 1957. That is quite the championship drought. And it isn’t like they have been close a bunch of times or ever really. I believe this is only their second Conference Championship game. The 49ers have arguably the best roster in the NFL. The Lions have the “we are due” mantra on lock. The 49ers defense is clearly better. However, the Lions have a great O-line and great skill guys. Both teams have good but limited quarterbacks. This should be another good game. 

Reasons for the Lions to have hope: I mean they haven’t won since 1957! They are the only franchise that has been operational for the entirety of the Super Bowl era to never make the super bowl. They are due. They can’t like never ever win, right? 

Reasons for the 49ers to have hope: They are playing the Lions. They haven’t won since 1957. Why would they start now? 

Prediction: According to Vegas, the 49ers have not only the best odds to win this game but also the best odds to win the Super Bowl. But as the wise Han Solo once said…”Never tell me the odds!” My gut is right more than it isn’t and my gut says the Lions find a way to get it done. Purdy is good but not great and Shanahan tends to struggle most when it matters most. Maybe the Packers game scared them straight and they come out and take care of business but it just feels like the Lions team is a little thing of destiny. I mean…it’s been since 1957 after all. In a matter of 3 years, Dan Campbell goes from biting ankles to going to the Super Bowl.

Lions 31 49ers 27

And there you have it. The season will end the same way it started with the Chiefs and the Lions facing off. Almost seems scripted doesn’t it? The NFL leaked the scripted game between the 49ers and Ravens but it was a fake to prove that the NFL isn’t scripted. But they can’t trick this guy as I know that the script was a hoax and the real script was this rematch between the Chiefs and Lions. I’m on to you NFL script writers! You can’t fool me. Let’s see if I get proved right. 

As always, the Divisional round did not disappoint. The only blow out was the Ravens over the Texans and that game was tied 10-10 at the half. The other 3 games came down to the wire and were very competitive. It was fun to watch and now we are down to the 4 final teams. Also, I went 4 for 4 with my predictions, which was nice. Here are my reactions from the Divisional round and my rankings of best chance to win the Super Bowl.

1. The Ravens have the best all around team:

I don’t know how you can determine anything else at this point. The can run the ball, they can throw the ball. Their defense is smothering. Lamar is still not an elite passer despite what the media wants you to believe but he is much better and he is so mobile that he is extremely dangerous. The receivers are much improved and again, that defense is just top notch. I think they are beatable but they have taken it to all the top teams of late. 

2. Brock Purdy is good not great.

I like Brock so I am no hater here. He is a great story and has done a nice job for them. He is just limited. He is a younger, healthier Jimmy G. He is not great from playing from behind and missed a lot of throws throughout the game. The 49ers have a good D and amazing skill guys but even when one of them is down it makes Purdy struggle. Also, McCaffrey should be the MVP. That dude is amazing.

3. Bucs, Packers and Texans should be proud. 

My wife said yesterday, “I don’t think anyone predicted the Bucs and the Lions playing each other this late in the season.” I sure didn’t. The Bucs made it farther with Baker than they did with Tom Brady last year with a lot of the same team otherwise. Baker had a good game overall but costly turnovers kept them from having a shot to win. The Texans ran into a buzz saw in the second half against the Ravens. But after winning 4 games last year, they have nothing to be ashamed of. They need some more pieces but I like the Texans to be in the picture for a while. And the Packers really should have won Saturday night. They had so many missed opportunities. But as I told my son, Walker, they overachieved all year. They are so young but have a lot of the right pieces. And Matt LeFluer can coach. They had it there for the taking. They just need to grow up a little so they can take it.

4. The Ball rolling through the end zone as a touchback is a dumb rule. 

I’m not just saying that because it hurt my team. There have been other moments where it has helped my team. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If a player fumbles the ball and it goes out of bounds they bring it back to where the player fumbled at. It seems logical to me that the same thing should happen here. I guess maybe more people would reach for the goal line or pylon with no fear of turning the ball over. That would be the negative but honestly no one is out there intentionally trying to fumble. The league will likely review it in the offseason as there are many that think the way I do. The rule just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Either way, after fumbling twice in the red zone, Hardman should no longer be a part of the goal line package. 

5. The Chiefs are built different.

My son likes this saying a lot “built different” and since he says it so much the whole family has adapted it into our vocabulary. This Chiefs team offensively has been bad most of the year. Teams don’t just start playing well in the playoffs. It is not how football works. By this time of year, you are who you are. Unless you are the Chiefs. The whole offense looks drastically better than it has all year. Pat looks great. The receivers are catching the ball. Even MVS had two monster catches. He bobbled them both but he still caught them. They have put up 27 points in back to back weeks and have moved the ball up and down the field. The penalties and drops are way down. And with the defense playing the way it is, you don’t have to score more than 27. But this turn around when it matters most is uncommon and should be appreciated. If the Chiefs somehow find a way to win it all, I think it means that us Chiefs fans can never question them again. 

Mostly likely to win the Super Bowl Rankings:

All of these teams are obviously great and any of them could win it but these are my rankings of who I think has the best chance to win it right now.

4. 49ers

They have an incredible team and they very well could win it all. But I have two major concerns. First, Purdy is limited and the worst QB left. Secondly, Kyle Shanahan does not have a good track record in the big game. I think he is more likely to make the wrong calls when it matters most than the others.

3. Lions

The 49ers probably have the better all around team but the Lions have great skill guys too. And they also have a great offensive line. Their defense does give up points though and that is why they are ranked where they are. But I trust Goff more than I do Purdy at this point. Plus, I mean come on, the Lions are due. 

2. Chiefs

I think an AFC team is winning the Super Bowl. I just don’t know which one. The Chiefs are finally playing well offensively. Pat has looked great the last two weeks. Kelce is getting open again. Rice has developed nicely and is a real weapon. But Pacheco is really the key. He may not break any 90 yard runs but he turns a lot of 2 yard runs into 8 yard runs. The defense has been phenomenal all year and the halftime adjustments have been outstanding. We haven’t given up more than 7 points in the second half in ages and haven’t given up 30 points all year. If it is close at the half, I like the Chiefs to beat whoever.

1.Ravens

The only defense I would take over the Chiefs is the Ravens. Their ability to run the ball is top notch and a big concern for the Chiefs this week. And then you add on Lamar’s mobility to go along with his improved throwing. They are a very dangerous team. They have been putting the smack down on top teams the last several weeks. I don’t know if they are going to win but if you had to put money on a team to win two more games the next 2 weeks, the safe money is on the Ravens. 

Tune in later this week for my predictions for the Conference Championships. 

I love the Divisional round. Typically Wild Card weekend is not as exciting and last weekend was no different. The Conference championship games are awesome but there is only 2 games. But the Divisional round is 4 games over 2 games and usually the games are awesome. This was less true last year. But the year before it was literally the greatest 4 game combo in NFL history. I don’t know what this weekend will bring but I will be watching and if you are reading this, you probably will be too. The good news is you don’t have to pay and/or describe to anything new to watch this week. So lets get into it.

A Great Rookie QB vs the Best Passing Running Back Ever: Texans @ Ravens 2:30 PM Mountain time on ESPN

The Texans just had an impressive victory over the Browns. However, the Browns have one like one play off game in the last 40 years. The Ravens had an impressive last few weeks of the season and dominated every good team they played. The Texans have a fun and energetic head coach that is hard not to like. The Ravens have a coach that has a face that you energetically want to punch (is that just me?). The Texans have a pesky defense that dominated a QB last week who was previously living on a run down house boat. (This is my last Joe Flacco/Shane Falco comparison of the year). The Ravens have a defense who have dominated the best offenses in football. The Texans have an outstanding throwing rookie quarterback named CJ Stroud. The Ravens have an outstanding throwing running back named Lamar Jackson. Lamar is going to win MVP because voters are stupid. Voters are the same reason that all the Sports Hall of Fame are a joke and the same reason we are about to have to choose between Trump and Biden…again. Seriously, America…what the hell are we doing here? Biden vs Trump 2.0 is like if the Raiders played the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Except unfortunately for us, Trump and Biden can actually win something that matters. But no matter who wins, we still lose. The MVP should really go to McCaffrey. More on him later. But whatever, give it to Lamar. He is on the best team playing the best down the stretch. 

The Texans are used to warmer weather or playing in a dome. The high in Baltimore on Saturday is 24 degrees. The Ravens defense is legit and the offense has been pretty good. Lamar is better at throwing and can still run around. The Texans are pesky and fun to watch but I think they hit a wall on Saturday.

Texans reason for hope: They have overachieved all year long so why not overachieve on Saturday? They have a great young QB and coach and they will play hard.

Ravens reason for hope: They have more experience, better players, homefield advantage and the first non quarterback MVP in a while. 

Prediction: Look, the Texans have been fun and competitive all year. I think the future is bright in Houston. They are also playing Lamar who despite the fact that he is about to be MVP for the second time only has one playoff win. I would love for Lamar to have more MVPs than playoff wins but I think it will at least be a tie this year. The Ravens have seemed like they are on a mission for a while. I am not buying the Texans stopping that mission. After a close first half, the Ravens pull away.

Ravens 30 Texans 17

LaFluer vs his nemesis: Packers @ 49ers on Fox at 6:15 PM mountain time

Since taking over the Packers, LaFluer has made the playoffs every year but 1. The first year, they had a brutal loss to the 49ers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers ran all over them. I think good lookin Jimmy G threw like 5 passes all game or something. The following year, they lost again in the conference championship to some guy named Tom Brady. Then the following year they were the 1 seed but lost at home to the 49ers again. LaFluer just can’t beat the 49ers. But I like LaFluer. I think he is a good coach. It’s amazing how good his offense looks with a young quarterback and young receivers compared to how it looked with an egomaniac who lives in caves and smokes peyote at QB throwing to all his washed up buddies. The Packers literally just put the smack down on the Cowboys last week. Can they do it again this week?

The 49ers are coming off their bye and are as healthy as they have ever been entering the playoffs. Every 49ers fan is knocking on wood right now in unison. When healthy they are as good as anyone and have the best roster in football. Brock Purdy does a nice job for them but their biggest concern is falling behind. If they fall behind they struggle. Purdy is not great at throwing the ball down field and hasn’t exactly been the comeback kid. However, in most of their losses there has been plenty of blame to go around. But they are at home and have a strong team. Assuming no one important gets hurt which is probably unlikely, they should be able to make a run at this thing. 

Reasons for the Packers to have hope: They are too young to know better and have nothing to lose and LaFluer is due against these guys.

Reason for the 49ers to have hope: They are more experienced, have a better defense, the best offensive weapon in the game and a coach who has had a lot of success against the Packers.

Prediction: The Packers will have to score early and often to have a shot at this one. I think it will be closer than most people expect but LaFluer will have to wait another year to seek his revenge.

49ers 34 Packers 27

The Former Losers game: Bucs @ Lions on NBC at 1 PM Mountain time:

For most of my life growing up these two teams were dumpster fires. In fact a lot of years of my adult life these teams have been terrible. The Bucs have had a couple good stretches. The Lions on the other hand, not so much. But look at them now. Hosting a divisional round game. The Lions got here by edging out the Rams by a point and the Bucs trounced the Eagles who quit 6 weeks ago. 

This is really a game about who do you doubt the least. I keep telling myself the Lions are a good team but I just can’t believe it. Do I really believe the Detroit Lions can make it to the NFC Championship? On the flipside, the Bucs finished 9-8 in the worst division in football. Do I really believe they are going to go on the road and win and make it to the NFC championship?

Also, do I believe in either one of these quarterbacks? They have both given me reason to do so, but they are still Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. I just can’t believe that one of these teams is going to be playing next week for a shot at going to the Super Bowl. This will be an interesting game as both teams have strengths and weaknesses. 

Reason for the Bucs to have hope: They are playing the Detroit Lions.

Reasons for the Lions to have hope: They are playing the 9-8 Bucs at home.

Prediction: I don’t believe but I believe more in the Lions. They have the better running game and more explosive players. And I believe more in ankle biter Dan Campbell than I do Todd Bowles.

Lions 27 Buc 20

The Road playoff game: Chiefs @ Bills on CBS at 4:30 PM mountain time

Hey guys, did you know this is Patrick Mahomes first road playoff game? He has never played on the road before. I wonder how he will do playing on the road. He won’t be as good because he is on the road. You know he has never done this before. It’s a big deal.

This is the story apparently. But hey at least it is a break from Kelce and t-swift news. Anything to get a break from that. Anyway, the Chiefs head on the road after playing arguably their best game of the year that they get no credit for because it was cold outside and the Dolphins had some injuries on defense. I guess that was the reason the Dolphins only scored 7 points. All those injuries on defense really kept them from executing on offense. It had nothing to do with our D. 

The Bills on the other hand got blessed with some terrible first half play by the Steelers including a couple of turnovers and the fact that they were playing Mason Rudolph. The Bills are unstoppable though. So good that the Chiefs have no chance. I mean, Mahomes is playing on the road after all. 

I think the Bills are an excellent team. I like the Bills. But the Chiefs are getting no credit for one of the best defenses in the league. The Chiefs biggest issue right now is in the red zone. Whoever scores tds in the red zone and doesn’t turn it over will win this game. These teams are evenly matched so the key is not to make mistakes. The Chiefs have been making mistakes all year and Josh Allen can be quite the turnover machine. They saved the best for last, this should be a good one.

Reason for the Chiefs to have hope: Playoff Pat and the best defense I have seen in a long time for the Chiefs.

Reason for the Bills to have hope: Mahomes has to play on the road…duh.

Prediction: This should be a great game. Ironically, I’ll miss kick off while I am coaching my daughters basketball team. I am sure I won’t be distracted at all. I also have a choice to make. Do I just jump in live when I get home? Or do I watch from the beginning and fast forward through the commercials and play catch up? That would involve telling everyone not to text me until I am caught up, not getting on the internet or listening to the radio and turning off notifications on my phone. Decisions, decisions. I must admit that I have a pretty good gut feeling when it comes to the Chiefs. I’m not saying I am psychic or anything so don’t start wagering money on my predictions. But I am often right about the Chiefs. And I got a good feeling about this one. I don’t know if it is because everyone else hates them and thinks they will lose or the fact that Pat has never played a road game and a guy like that embraces that and rolls with it. I don’t know but I think we show up and play well. The Bills are a quality team and if the Chiefs do win I am sure it will be because of the injuries that the Bills have. But I’ll take playoff Pat in this spot. If the Bills win, I won’t be upset. I like the Bills. But I will be bummed. I might even cry but if I do cry it will only be for a short period of time. Probably only 13 seconds. 

Chiefs 27 Bills 20

There you have it. Tune in next week for reactions and predictions for championship weekend. 

Wild Card Weekend has come and gone and now we head to the divisional round but before we do, here is 5 reactions from the long weekend and new rankings of the 8 remaining teams.

1. Pass interference only happens in the regular season.

Besides the Rams game, I don’t think it really altered the results but after calling PI often during the regular season the refs decided to take a hands off approach while allowing the defenders to take a hands on approach. Hardman was obviously held and grabbed on a deep route. He probably still could have caught it if he would keep running instead of complaining though. Pickens got held up late in the Bills game on 4th down. I don’t think the Steelers were going to score twice so no harm, no foul especially the no foul part. The worst one was on Puka late in the Lions game when he was obviously grabbed while trying to get to the football. This cost the Rams the game. Now, there were other bad calls that went against the Lions and these things tend to even out. But it is always a bummer when that happens late and it doesn’t get called in a crucial moment. The Rams still had lots of other opportunities to win the game but that one was the most egregious to me.

2. Blowouts everywhere.

I obviously love football and had a blast watching the Chiefs game but even so these were mostly a snooze fest. It seems that this is typical where the division round is where things start to tighten up. Thanks to the Rams and Lions for playing the one close game over the weekend. And congrats to the Lions for winning their first playoff game since I was in 7th grade. 

3. How about dem boys.

The Cowboys since winning their last Super Bowl in 1990 something, they have been a playoff disaster. They had the two seed and a clear path to not have to play their nemesis the 49ers until the NFC Championship. So what did they do? They decided to lay an egg and be the first ever 2 seed to lose to a 7 seed. Props to the Packers for coming in and just dominating. This loss made me happy for 4 reasons. First, I hate the Cowboys. Secondly, my son is a huge Packers fan and when he is happy he is less of a mean teenage boy than normal. 3rd, I think it is funny that the Packers are literally doing what they couldn’t do with Aaron Rodgers last year. And finally, I am all for Skip Bayless being unhappy. He is the worst. I am always happy when his team falls a part. 

4. Speaking of falling apart…

What the hell happened to the Eagles? They were 10-1…earlier this season! They finish 11-7 and lost 6 of their last 7 games. Just brutal. They don’t tackle. AJ Brown is ready to revolt for some reason. All of the sudden their offensive line can’t block anyone. I think Nick Siranni might be unstable or something. The whole thing is a mess. It really makes you appreciate Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. I mean they went through a lot this year and a lot of problems and Mahomes even had a meltdown during the Bills game. But they stayed the course and stayed together. That is good leadership. 

5. Every weekend should be a 3 day weekend.

Having 2 playoff football games to watch 3 days in a row was awesome, even if they weren’t particularly good games. But what made it even better was not having to work for any of those days. It seems like we should always have 4 day weeks instead of 5 day work weeks. I think everyone would enjoy it and get more done. I know that some companies do this already but it just makes sense. If I ever run for President, I’ll suggest it. Also, I should run for President. 

8 teams remain! Here is the order of best shot to win the Super Bowl.

8. The Bucs

Look, Baker is a good story. The defense is playing well. But this is a team that is 2 weeks removed from only scoring 9 points against the Panthers and 3 weeks removed from getting their butts kicked by the Saints. So I am not putting a lot of weight into them dismantling the Eagles Train Wreck last night. 

7. The Texans

CJ Stroud is really good. Ryans has done an incredible job turning this once dysfunctional franchise into a competitor. They are young and talented. And I think they are here to stay. If they were in the NFC, I would rank them higher but I think they have perhaps the hardest path because they have to go to Baltimore and if they win, then they have to head to either KC or Buffalo. Stranger things have happened outside of Hawkins, Indiana but I think it will be a stretch for sure.

6. The Packers

The Packers played amazing and completely dominated the Cowboys. But lets remember that the Cowboys didn’t beat anyone good all year. Their best victory is the Eagles but the Eagles were in meltdown mode at that point. The Packers have the talent but they are young and probably won’t jump ahead so much like they did against the Cowboys. They have to go to San Fran this week who has been their nemesis in the playoffs as well. I think the 49ers are just too good to lose at home to the Packers. I have them ranked slightly hire than the Texans because if somehow they do win on Saturday it is easier for them to beat the Lions or Bucs than it is for the Texans to beat the Bills or Chiefs.

5. The Lions

From a standpoint of ease of schedule, the Lions should be higher. They edged out the Rams and now will host the Bucs who only one 9 games in the worst division in football. If they win they would either host the Packers or travel to San Fran. Neither is an easy task as the Lions lost to the Packers earlier this season at home the 49ers are very good. It’s not impossible. But let’s remember, they are still the Lions. 

4. The Chiefs

The Chiefs played their best game in a long time. The defense looked great and really only gave up one play. The offense looked solid. They moved the ball well and the penalties and drops were less and the only turnover came very late in the game when CEH gave up the ball. Pat played his best game in a while and the whole team was a lot like Justin Timberlake, Lance Bass and those other guys and as they seemed in sync. But can they do it two weeks in a row? And can they score more touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone?

3. The Bills

I give the Bills a slight edge over the Chiefs because they are at home and they score more touchdowns. But Allen too has a knack for turning the ball over. Also, the Bills haven’t lost to the Chiefs since the 13 second game and both those games were in Arrowhead. Home field advantage is a thing. And I am sure the Mafia will be rocking. 

2. The Ravens

The Ravens dominated the 49ers earlier this year. So why are they ranked lower? Just a tougher path really.  I think the Texans are slightly better than the Packers and then I would take the Bills and Chiefs over the Lions and Bucs. So because of that, I think the Ravens have a more challenging path. Also, Lamar does not have a history of winning playoff games and the 49ers do.

1. The 49ers

They have in my mind the easiest path and the best roster. They play the 7 seed this week at home and assuming they win they would host the winner of the worst division in football or the Lions who never win anything. The key for the 49ers is not to fall behind. They are not great at playing catch up. 

Tune in later this week for my divisional round thoughts and predictions.