This is typically my favorite weekend of the year. Obviously it is a little less exciting because the Chiefs aren’t playing in it for the first time since 2017. But it should still be a fun weekend. Often, the Divisional games are the best games of the year. This was really true in the 2021 season when 3 games were won by a game winning field goal and the final game was the 13 second game. I won’t say anything more because I don’t want to trigger Bills fans. That was arguably the greatest NFL weekend ever. I doubt this weekend will top it but it should be four great games. Lets dive in.

The Win/win or lose/lose game for Chiefs fans: Bills @ Broncos

Depending on how you look at this game, it is either a win either way for Chiefs fans because either a division foe falls or Josh Allen loses and Pat will continue to have super bowls over Josh. The other way to look at it is it being a loss either way because either Josh gets one step closer or a division rival hosts the AFC conference game. I’ll personally be cheering for the Broncos because it is the first game of the weekend and my wife will be much more fun the rest of the weekend while I watch the rest of the games. The Broncos have the more complete team and the Bills have Josh Allen, a great offensive line, the leading rusher and the number 1 pass defense. So they are no slouches. The Broncos won 12 one score games this year so they are very clutch. Bo is a bit sporadic in his play but seems to play better the tighter the game. The Bills run defense is awful and as I watched that Jags game, I kept thinking why is Trevor throwing so much when they are getting 7 yards a carry. The Broncos have a Super Bowl winning coach but overall, Payton hasn’t had much playoff success. He is just 9-9 in the playoffs and 1-4 in his last 5 games. If the Broncos can run the ball successfully and stick with the run, I think they have a great shot to win this thing. Their defense hasn’t been as great the last few weeks and their offense struggled the last 3 games. But perhaps the extra week off will help. Ultimately, I just think this might be Josh’s destiny playoffs. So I give the Bills the slight edge in this one but won’t be shocked if the Broncos win.

Bills 24 Broncos 20

Purdy good vs doubting Darnold: 49ers @ Seahawks

The Seahawks just beat the 49ers and held them to 3 points at the 49ers stadium a couple of weeks ago. Now they head to Seattle where the 49ers beat them last time. Darnold did not have 200 yards passing in either game. Sam has been pretty awful in games that matter but at least he didn’t make any mistakes in the last 49ers game. If he can play mistake free, then Seattle should win because the rest of the team is stacked. The 49ers are quickly running out of people but somehow just keep winning. Shanahan will likely have a better plan this time around and score more than 3 points. I sort of want to pick the 49ers but they just have so many injuries and this isn’t the collapsing eagles. Seattle has the better D, the better receivers, more depth at running back, better O-line and the massive benefit of home field advantage. The wild cards are the quarterbacks. Darnold has been bad in big moments. Purdy has been great. His only playoff losses are against the eagles when he got hurt the first drive and didn’t play the rest of the game and in overtime in the Super Bowl when he left the field with a 3 point lead in overtime. When Shanahan makes the playoffs, he has never not made it to the NFC championship. But I think all the trends break. Sam plays a good enough game and Seattle wins.

Seahawks 20 49ers 13

The Best D vs the MVP?: Texans @ Patriots

The Texans D is legit. A lot of teams like Seattle have great and well executed schemes. Teams like Denver have a great pass rush. The Texans basically just roll their 11 dudes out there and say our guys are better than your guys. And they aren’t wrong. The problem is the offense struggles. CJ Stroud has not been great really since his rookie year. He was pretty awful against the Steelers on Monday night. And he will be without Nico Collins their best offensive weapon. The key for them will be the ability to run the ball, keep Drake off the field and avoid any turnovers. On the other side of the things, the Patriots are ready to start their next dynasty. Just ask Patriot fans who think they have already arrived and can do no wrong. Sure the Texans D is good, but they have the next Tom Brady only this time he can run and the greatest offensive coordinator of all time in Josh McDaniels. They will tell you all about both. Vrabel has done a great job with this team and they don’t get phased by much. But they still haven’t played anyone in the Texans category of teams besides the Bills. I think Drake will do okay but this Texans D can be tormenting. Sometimes a Defense just puts their team on their back and dominates a playoff run. I think that might be what happens this year. Give me the Texans in the upset!

Texans 24 Patriots 17

The Old Guard vs the up and comers: Rams @ Bears

The Rams have been an established good team since Sean McVay took over. They won a Super Bowl once Matthew Stafford came over. Both have had great seasons. The Rams offense is very good. They can run the ball. They have Puka and Davante. They got like 7 tight ends that all look alike and can all block and get open and catch the ball. Their offensive line is solid. Their defense is talented but hasn’t played well. But they could turn it around at any time. Meanwhile the Bears tend to be just okay for most of games and then amazing in the 4th quarter. They too can run the ball and they have young talented dudes running around everywhere. The weak link is Caleb who plays good late, but struggles to play 4 good quarters. Their defense is also shaky and struggles to put 4 good quarters together. I’m not sure the Bears can play their come back style against these Rams. It is going to be cold, like real cold so that could help their chances. But in the end, I just think the Rams have too much. The Bears won’t get blown out and the future is bright, but I think Stafford and McVay have a good plan and McVay and Lafluer’s little brother get some revenge for Matt.

Rams 38 Bears 24