After a couple of month hiatus, Fifth Down is back. No one asked us to come back but we are back none the less. We are just 5 weeks away from the start of the NFL season which means I’ll have something to write about every week as the Tuesday rankings and 5 for Friday will return. But to get you ready for the upcoming season, I’m going to give you a sneak preview of each division over the next 4 Fridays and then will conclude with my playoff predictions. We kick it off with the East from both conferences.
NFC EAST
1st Place: Philadelphia Eagles
I know we talk about the hangover from the team that loses the super bowl and how they haven’t made it back to the game since the Patriots in 2018 or whatever and it rarely happened prior to that, yada yada yada. But as of late the loser also doesn’t fall off a cliff. The losers from the last two super bowls both lost by 3 points in the AFC Championship game the following year. Not too shabby. The Eagles have the two things you need to be successful in the NFL. A really good quarterback and a really good coach. Jalen Hurts has proven he is a high quality QB and I am not sure why he is never mentioned in the top 5. I mean besides Mahomes and Burrow, who else are you for sure taking over him? Dude can do it all and that stupid QB push play is impossible to stop. Sirianni is kind of goofy and weird but he has shown he can not only coach but be an executive of a team. The players seem to love him and play hard for him. This seems like a successful set up for years to come.
Reason they will win the East: They have the QB and the coach as mentioned and the rest of the division isn’t very good.
Reason they won’t win the East: No one has won this division in back to back years since 2004. Will they make it a 19th year without a repeat? Or will the Eagles be the first team to do it since…the Eagles did it from 2001-2004.
Fantasy Players to Draft: The Eagles are fantasy rich. Hurts should be the top QB target besides Mahomes. AJ Brown and Devontae Smith are both worth drafting. Dallas Goedert is an underrated Tight End who I think will perform about as well as Kittle or Andrews but you can get him 2-3 rounds later…you’re welcome.
Predicted record: 13-4
2nd Place: Dallas Cowboys
While I love the Eagles QB and Coach, I have zero faith in the Cowboys combo. Both have had some success but seem to rip defeat from the jaws of victory way more than they do the other way around. They continue to overpay the wrong players, like giving a big contract to a CB who while does get a lot of interceptions also gets burnt a lot. They overpaid Zeke and ended up dropping him. They overpaid Dak. They will probably over pay Pollard and Lamb in a few years. This is how you stay relevant but don’t actually ever win anything. It’s the Cowboy way.
Reason they will win the East: They have a great overall roster and again, no one has won the east 2 years in a row in 18 years. If the Eagles don’t win it, the Cowboys are the next likely choice.
Reason they won’t win the East: Because Dak likes to throw it to the other team in crucial situations.
Fantasy Players to Draft: Pollard and Lamb should both be off the board early and often. First two rounds for both of those guys. Their defense does get a lot of turnovers so if you don’t stream defenses (which you should) then grabbing them isn’t terrible. Also, they do like to throw to their tight ends a lot so if you realize it is the 12th or 13th round and you haven’t drafted a tight end yet, (happens to the best of us) then Schoonmaker could be a good sleeper. Plus his name is fun to say. Although Dak does throw a lot of picks he also throws for a lot of yards. He is a decent QB to pick up in the middle rounds.
Predicted record: 11-6
3rd Place: the NY Football Giants
The Giants had a surprisingly successful season this past year. I do like their coach but they also made it into the playoffs last year with a 9-7-1 record so it wasn’t like they were crushing it. Danny Dimes while likable, isn’t all that good. The defense is solid but not great. And that receiving core is rough. There answer to that was to trade for a tight end. I think they have a slightly worse season and miss the playoffs.
Reason they will win the East: Danny Dimes proves me wrong, 3 no name receivers become household names and Barkley not only stays healthy but has an MVP like season.
Reason they won’t win the East: None of the above is happening.
Fantasy Players to Draft: Barkley gets hurt sometimes but he is worth the risk. Waller might be a sneaky good pick if you can get him in the middle rounds. He also gets hurt a lot so you might want to draft him and Kittle and hope that they get injured at different times in the season.
Predicted Record: 9-8
4th Place: Washington…whatever they are called
Washington is not good. They do not have a good roster. They have an unknown at QB and they have a pretty good but not really good coach. I wish them the best because I do like Eric Bieniemy who is now the offensive coordinator. They have some decent pieces here and there but nothing to write home about. But hey at least they got read of their terrible owner so even if they go 0-17, this season is a win.
Reason they will win the East: Every year lately, some team goes from worst to first so maybe it will be them.
Reason they won’t win the East: It won’t be them.
Fantasy Players to draft: I firmly believe Terry McLaurin could be a top 10 fantasy receiver with good QB play. But he won’t have that so utilize him as your 3rd receiver and to help with bye weeks. Brian Robinson did alright for a few weeks and you should be able to get him in later rounds for depth. Jahon Dotson is also talented but until we see what Sam Howell can do I am passing on him too. Basically don’t rush to draft any Washington players.
Predicted Record: 5-12
AFC East
1st Place: Buffalo Bills
I understand that the Bills season didn’t end exactly as they had planned. I mean they had a player almost die so I think that threw them off a little. But if we are honest, they weren’t looking great before then either. But I am also not sure how they got worse. They will have some injured players back and drafted well. They still have a good coach and a great quarterback which is my NFL criteria for success. They both have their short comings but is there really a coach/QB combo that you have more confidence in this division? I know the hype train is strong for the Jets and the Dolphins and I think both will be good…but give me the Bills to win the division again.
Reason the will win the East: They have the best quarterback, the best receiver, and the most known competent coach.
Reason they won’t win the East: They are the Bills and the Bills like to break the hearts of their fans.
Fantasy Players to draft: to me, Josh Allen should be the 3rd QB off of everyone’s board after Mahomes and Hurts. Like Hurts, Allen will get you lots of rushing scores but unlike a Justin Fields type he won’t get injured a bunch. After Allen, Diggs is an easy late first round or early second round pick. I also think that they are going to give the ball to James Cook a lot so he is a strong pick up as well. After that, their rookie tight end, Dalton Kincaid is a sleeper pick. But he is also sort of everyone’s sleeper pick so let someone else reach for him or pick him in the later rounds if available.
Predicted Record: 12-5
2nd Place: New York Jets
Look, I don’t want to believe the hype. In fact, originally my bold prediction was that the Packers would make the playoffs and the Jets wouldn’t. But it seems like everyday the Jets do something to be better. Since coming out of the cave or whatever, Rodgers is doing everything he should have done in Green Bay, took less money, bonding with the younger players…doing this crazy thing called practicing. Sometimes a guy needs a change of scenery. This team still has issues. Their O-line is suspect. Their defense feasted on a bad schedule last year. The verdict on the coaching staff is still out. But they have too much talent to flop. The first 6 weeks are brutal…but after that the schedule gets much easier. Does this mean I think they are going to the super bowl? No…I think Rodgers and a young team are not the group to make a deep playoff run. But Jets fans should be happy just to make it since they have the longest drought in the NFL. They will be happy to pass that title on to the Broncos.
Reason they will win the East: Rodgers plays inspiring ball, gets back to his old form and leads the Jets back to glory.
Reason they won’t win the East: They get off to a rough start and Rodgers starts contemplating life instead of studying the playbook.
Fantasy Players to Draft: Rodgers loves to throw a lot to one guy and I think that guy is going to be Garrett Wilson. Hell, he could be the #1 fantasy receiver this year. If Cook signs then he is definitely worth picking up. I also like Hall but am nervous about him coming off an injury. It’s wait and see on the other receivers for me. Rodgers isn’t a bad pick up late. He could turn out to be the equivalent of a Burrow or Herbert using a 9-11 round pick instead of a 4-6 round pick.
Predicted Record: 11-6
3rd Place: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have a ton of weapons and a QB that is good enough when healthy. But being healthy has been quite the issue. I am not one to make fun of a guy with a lot of head injuries so I will leave it to that. They have a quirky, funny head coach who does seem to know what he is doing. Isn’t it great that nerds can now make millions coaching NFL football teams? It’s like they are living every Madden player’s dream. Their defense is going to have to drastically get better to make the playoffs again. Scheduling plays such a big role when it comes to making the playoffs. Their schedule this year is brutal. While I like the Dolphins and their coach I think they take a step back record wise. If Tua plays 15 or 16 games they will have a much better chance at getting in.
Reason they will win the East: Mike McDaniel switches it over to Rookie level on Madden and dominates the league.
Reason they won’t win the East: Tua gets hurt…again and again and again.
Fantasy Players to Draft: Tyreek can’t keep mouth shut and can’t stop hitting people but he also can’t stop scoring fantasy points. He is a mid to late first round pick. Jaylen Waddle would be the number 1 receiver on around 28 of the 32 teams. He’s outstanding and is probably the best 2nd receiver in the fantasy world. I am waiting to see if anyone becomes the guy in the backfield. I had to look up who their tight end is so I am out on him and unless you are playing in a two QB league, I’d pass on Tua as well.
Predicted Record: 9-8
4th Place: New England Patriots
The all time winningest coach is only 80-86 without Tom Brady as his Quarterback. That’s not great. I don’t see that record getting better this year. Look, he is too good of a coach for the team to fall apart and be terrible. However, the talent and QB play is just not there. I mean who’s their number 1 target? JuJu? I think JuJu is funny but he is not a #1 receiver. And the rest of the division got better. The schedule is tough. I mean, this team could start 0-4. The middle of the schedule lightens up just enough for them to hang around in the playoff hunt for a little bit. But 3 of their last 4 games are against the Chiefs, Bills and Jets. Ouch. Looks like another year without a playoff appearance without Tom Brady. Maybe they can get him to come out of retirement in 2024.
Reason they will win the East: Belichick finds a new way to cheat by creating a time machine. He goes back in time is actually nice to Tom Brady and other stars. Then comes back to current time but has changed the future so all the good players are still on his team. He wins another championship but is so grumpy that Tom and everyone else retires again at the end of the season.
Reason they won’t win the East: Belichick’s time machine plan is foiled and he remains extra grumpy and wins 7 games.
Fantasy Players to draft: Not a lot of great choices here. Stevenson is a good back and could be the lone starter with Damien Harris gone. But they like to do things by committee and I don’t like how high he is going in mock drafts. They got to throw to somebody so you can draft JuJu late if you want.
Predicted Record: 7-10
Tune in next week when I tell you everything you need to know about the South.
Fifth Down 