Here are 5 predictions followed by my picks for Championship Weekend.

1. Robbie Gould misses a kick. Gould has been super clutch in the playoffs and has literally never missed a kick. Every time they roll him out there, the announcers mention this. This of course is the ultimate jinx for any player and the odds are that he will miss one at some point. This week might as well be it.
2. We will hear about how if the Bengals beat the Chiefs then Joe Burrow is better than Mahomes 87,000 times before the game starts. Look Burrow is amazing and the Bengals have our number. But part of the reason they have our number is because he is handing off to Joe Mixon and throwing to Chase, Higgins and Boyd. As Marcus Spears on ESPN said the other day, if Mahomes was throwing to those 3 guys he would throw for 7,000 yards. To make matters worse, if the Chiefs do lose, we will have to hear about this all off season long.
3. Chris Jones will get a sack. One of the odder stats is that Chris Jones has never recorded a post season sack. Now he has impacted games in different ways including batted balls and forcing the quarterback into other people’s arms. The Bengals created a whole plan to stop him last time we played and it worked. But their line is beat up and our D line has gotten better so I think Jones gets Burrow to the ground at some point.
4. Jalen Hurts scores multiple times in multiple ways. The 49ers defense is great but Hurts is a different sort of player. I believe he throws two touchdowns and runs it in for two touchdowns.
5. Butker kicks every kickoff into the endzone. Our defense actually played pretty well last week. They only really gave up one long td drive. However their first td came on a short field after a big return. They almost scored again when Butker had to make a td saving tackle. Then the same returner fumbled at the 4 other wise the Jags would have had another td on a short field. To make matters worse, we released one of our best special teams guys and the Bengals picked him up. There is no reason to mess around with this. Kick it out of the end zone every time and make them go 75 yards. There is no reason to kick it short just to try to make them go 80 yards instead, especially when the result could be that they only have to go 30 or 40 yards.

It should be an amazing weekend of games. The only result that would surprise me is a blowout in either game. These are clearly the 4 best teams which should lead to 2 great games. I am cheering for a Kelce bowl in the Super Bowl but we will see what happens. Anyway, here are my picks for this week.

Purdy vs the Birdie: 49ers @ Eagles

Both of these games should be exceptional. I am not putting a lot of weight into the Eagles beat down of the Giants. I never thought the Giants were that good and they beat a Vikings team that finds ways to lose. They only thing that really stood out is Hurts is pretty healthy which is a really good thing for the Eagles. I do put more weight in the 49ers small margin of victory against the Cowboys. Purdy was pressured often and didn’t handle it great. But he made enough plays to get the job done. He will have to make a lot more plays to win this one. Both coaches are solid and these are two of the better rosters in the league. Both teams are loaded with weapons and it will be whichever QB can get the hands into those weapons most efficiently that will win. I think the one difference is Hurts mobility. The 49ers must pressure yet contain him. The 49ers o-line also must limit pressure from a team that sacks the quarterback more than any other. I think this may be a little more high scoring than a lot of people think. I think both teams will get some turnovers and some short fields. The Eagles were the best team for the first half of the year. The 49ers have been the best team for the second half of the year. I have gone back and forth on this one but if all things are equal, I usually go with the home team. But I like Kyle Shanahan’s experience in this one. After missing a kick earlier in the game, Gould hits the game winner as time expires.

49ers 30 Eagles 28

The team I hate vs the the team I love: Bengals @ Chiefs

And so it comes to this. All my logic says to pick the stupid Bengals. Here are just some of the reasons.

They are 3-0 against the Chiefs in the last 13 months.

They have a better roster than the Chiefs.

A road favorite is 9-0 in Championship games (they were only road favorites for a day so I don’t know if this counts)

The Chiefs are awful against the spread, 7-11 overall and 1-7-1 at home.

The Bengals D has always given a healthy Mahomes fits.

Joe Burrow has played his best football against the Chiefs.

There has been 37 touchdowns outside of the pocket in the last 5 post seasons, Mahomes has 15 of them. His lack of mobility is an issue.

Everyone is picking the Bengals.

We can’t sack Joe Burrow for some reason.

Our corners are all basically rookies and their receivers are really good.

We gave up over 7 yards on the ground last week against the Jaguars.

The Bengals are super cocky and talk a lot of smack but always back it up.

You put all that together and you have to pick the Bengals right? Well, there is always one other factor that I look at when I am making picks and specifically when I pick the Chiefs and that is my gut. My gut isn’t always right but it is pretty good when it comes to the Chiefs. For instance, I felt good about the 2019 season and even predicted we would win it all and even got the score right in the Super Bowl. I didn’t feel great in the second super bowl due to our o line being a mess and Tampa having a good pass rush. My concern obviously became truth. Most recently, my gut told me that Henne was going to lead us on a 98 yard touchdown drive. So what is my gut saying about this one?

Well it has been battling my logic all week, despite all signs pointing towards the Bengals. Part of the reason is we have been so close all 3 times. We lost all 3 games by 3 points. We led in the 4th quarter in all 3 games. These games were so close and really we gave two of the games away by playing awful in the second half and could argue all 3 if you count Kelce’s fumble when we were clearly driving again. The Bengals have given us a little extra motivation with all their talk and calling Arrowhead, Burrowhead. The Bengals actually do respect us, unlike how they feel about most teams. But even when they are respectful, they sort of aren’t. Joe Burrow earlier in the week said “They are still the team to beat, and we’re coming for them.” Thanks, I guess.

I think the team wants this win as bad as any win since the first super bowl. They will be motivated and focused. Mahomes is different than he was in years past. He doesn’t have to run around as much. Joe Thuney wasn’t playing last time we played them. We didn’t have Toney or Hardman last time we played them. We will have Toney for sure, and maybe Hardman and maybe Fortson and maybe CEH. It seems like all hands are going to be on deck and everyone seems laser focused.

Every great one has a team they struggled against. Manning had the Patriots. Jordan had the Pistons. Brady had the Giants in the Super Bowl. John Elway couldn’t win the Super Bowl. Steve Young couldn’t get to the Super Bowl. LeBron had the rest of the league so he went to Miami to create a super team. You know they all had struggles, something to overcome. Mahomes has the Bengals.

I think Pat will start off looking healthy and play great but will aggravate the ankle at some point. He will play through in a Willis Reed sort of way. He will make the winning play and will get carried off the field by his teammates. We will talk about this like the Jordan Flu game which really should probably be called the Jordan “hung over” game.

My brain is telling me Bengals but my gut says “how about those Chiefs!” We finally beat these guys and the universe is right again.

Chiefs 31 Bengals 28