Welp, I seem to be getting worst at this as I went 2-3 last week to bring my total to 13-7. In good news, I am in first place in all 3 of my fantasy leagues. So I’ve got that going for me…which is nice. Let’s see if I can rebound this week and get back on track. On to this week’s picks.

The Fish out of Water game: Dolphins @ Bills

I know Dolphins aren’t fish but it seemed like a clever title and this will definitely be an environment this team isn’t used to. The Dolphins somehow won the first match up despite giving up a ton of yards. However, as of late they have gotten exposed. Back to back road losses to the 49ers and the Chargers in which they looked very overmatched. Now they head to Buffalo. Apparently they are supposed to get over a half a foot of snow. The Dolphins apparently had heaters going in LA on Sunday when it was 55 degrees. I do appreciate the nerdiest coach in the NFL, Mike McDaniel, rocking a shirt that says “I wish it was a little bit cooler” during practice. He is about to get his wish. I bet he is rocking a big winter coat on Saturday night instead of funny t-shirts.

The Dolphins are all about speed and offensive movement most of which is hard to do in the snow. They also tend to get behind but this is not an environment you want to get behind in. Tyreek has spent the week talking about why he left the Chiefs…again. It seems the story keeps changing. He said it was a lack of getting targets. He had 159 targets last year and barely played in the last game because he was hurt. That is over 9 targets a game and nearly 10 a game if you don’t count the last game of the year. He then proceeded to say that he asked the Chiefs to give him the same amount of money as AJ Brown and that he didn’t need to be the highest paid receiver. One problem, AJ Brown was traded after Tyreek so he had no idea what AJ was getting paid at the time. Then he said that he allowed the Chiefs an opportunity to match the Dolphins offer which they declined. This also seems highly unlikely. The funny part is his agent already told us what happened. They were close to a deal. Then Davante Adams got paid and they wanted more money. The Chiefs said no and so they traded him to Miami. It’s pretty simple. And everyone seems fine with it except the guy with all the money. Why does he keep bringing this up? Who cares? it is week 15…move on with your life Tyreek. He then said if we run into the Chiefs in the playoffs he would go off and they better have two people on him. His team is about to drop to 8-6 after losing yet another game so he should probably focus on actually making the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bills keep winning. Josh Allen hasn’t been playing great but he hasn’t had to either. The Bills have gotten better at running the ball and their defense is playing well. Recently a reporter told Josh that the offense doesn’t seem to be playing at a level that can win the Super Bowl. Allen responded “Okay.” Which was a great response. Give it a google. Anyway, I think the Bills are just fine. And I like them over this particular Dolphins team in half a foot of snow. The nation will be tuned in and the Bills deliver big.

Bills 30 Dolphins 17

This game actually matters???: Lions @ Jets

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that I needed to circle Lions vs the Jets in week 15 because it is going to be a big game, I would have laughed at you. But this is the beauty of the NFL. These are two historically bad teams with terrible luck and fortune. Even as I say this game matters, it’s not like either team is crushing it. The Lions are 6-7 and the Jets are 7-6. But this game does matter as both teams are pushing for a playoff appearance and neither team can afford to lose.

I feel like every week I am detailing Detroit’s awful history. They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2016 and the last time they won a playoff game, I was in 6th grade and we were all still tight rolling our jeans. They beat the Cowboys that year. Erik Kramer was the QB and went off for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns. They lost 41-10 the next week and haven’t won a playoff game since.

Earlier in the year they were 1-6 but they have won 5 of their last 6 and had a shot to beat the Bills on Thanksgiving if not for terrible time management and terrible defense. But they are playing well and scoring lots of points.

On the flipside, the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, Nebraska and Mizzou were still in the Big 12 and actually good at football. The Jets lost back to back conference championships and haven’t been back to the playoffs since. They have the longest playoff drought in the league.

But they have turned things around and are a competent football team again and are hosting the Lions in circumstances that I would describe as Jared Goff’s kryptonite…outside. Goff has been phenomenal indoors this year. But he is flat out awful outside. It looks to be in the 30’s when these two teams battle it out this Sunday. There is good reason to cheer for both teams and I won’t be upset no matter who wins. I was all set to pick the Jets but now Mike White is out and they are going back to Zach Wilson. Wilson has been awful and seems to take no ownership of his struggles and has lost the locker room. Am I to believe that Wilson has turned the corner because he was put in timeout for 2 or 3 games and now all the sudden he is going to play competent and lead his team to victory? So now I have a terrible Zach Wilson versus Jared Goff outside. The only thing I am confident about is that there will be more interceptions than touchdown passes. In the end, I’ll go with the better defense and home team in a close, low scoring game.

Jets 13 Lions 10

Battle of teams with glaring weaknesses: Titans @ Chargers

The Chargers finally won a game so now they are the second coming of the 80’s 49ers. Look, I get that they have been banged up and are starting to get healthy. But let’s not forget they lost 3 of 4 before last week and their one win was a 1 point victory over the woeful Cardinals. They are much better offensively with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back. Have I mentioned that I can’t stand Keenan Allen? He talks more crap than anyone I can remember for a guy who has won absolutely nothing. After Tyreek got traded, he tweeted that “some people were about to get exposed”, meaning the Chiefs and Mahomes. As Maury Povich would say, we have determined…that was a lie!

The Chargers have a lot of good players on defense and are terrible against the run. This is bad news when you are playing the Titans. That is the one thing offensively they do well. On the flipside, the Titans are terrible against the pass, which the Chargers do very well. So this game proves to be interesting. The Titans haven’t won since before Thanksgiving having dropped 3 in a row. People have realized if you stop Derrick Henry, you stop the Titans. The Titans are also on the road in this one. The good news for them is they are on the road against the Chargers and the Chargers don’t have any fans so it shouldn’t be too tough and might feel like a home game.

This is a tough game to pick. Everything on paper tells me that the Chargers are better. However, can you imagine Mike Vrabel letting this team lose it’s 4th in a row and falling to .500? Also, anytime the Chargers give people hope that they might actually be good, they quickly fall on their collective faces. Titans win a close one.

Titans 28 Chargers 27

To Tie or Not to Tie: Giants @ Commanders

The last time these two juggernauts battled it out, it ended in my buddy Evan’s favorite result, a tie. Ties are obviously not what the rest of the NFL viewership is looking for. These teams are pretty evenly matched as you can tell from their last outcome. They both have pretty good running games, okay quarterbacks, and pretty good defense. If you were asked to describe either team, I bet you would say “pretty good.” If you were going to rank all the NFL teams like I do, minus the snarky comments, I bet these two teams would fall somewhere between 13-17. Somewhere right in the middle.

The Giants started out hot and at one point were 6-1. Since then though, they have won only one game, an 8 point victory against the Texans. One of their major problems is that you have never heard of any of the players that they throw to. You might remember Kenny Golladay but they don’t actually throw to him. He was the guy who tricked the Giants into signing him after having a big year in Detroit. It has not worked out well. Daniel Jones has been alright at QB. Better than normal but that doesn’t say much. Saquon Barkley is getting the Derrick Henry treatment so he isn’t playing as well either as everyone is trying to stop him and he is banged up.

On the other side of things, the Redskins…I mean Commanders started the year with Carson Wentz at QB. It did not go well as they lost 4 of their first 5. Then the best thing happened that could happen to any team that Wentz is the starting QB for…Wentz got hurt. The team formerly known as the Redskins won 5 of their next 6 with their one loss a 3 point loss to the Vikings.

It really is like these two teams traded places with each other so it was very fitting that game 1 ended in a tie. Although, I would love nothing more than predict another tie, that seems highly unfathomable. The winner of this game has a great shot at making the playoffs. The loser will probably get in to but it will be harder. It’s crazy to think the NFC East is likely going to have 4 teams in the playoffs and even crazier that these two mediocre teams are going to get in more than likely because of that tie.

So who wins this sucker? Well I am going with the Redskins, I mean Commanders and my boy Brian Robinson. He got shot a week before the season started and came back like 3 weeks later. To put that into perspective, I played basketball with my kids one weekend in November and tweaked my knee and have been out for a month. I am still recovering for the foreseeable future.

Robinson has a big day and the Redskins…I mean the Commanders win at home.

Redskins 27 Giants 17

Baker’s Dozen vs The Rodgers Rate: Rams @ Packers

Two weeks ago I would have never thought about writing about this game. The Packers were dead in the water and the Rams were even deader. Somehow both teams are still alive in the playoff hunt but the Rams seem a lot farther away. Amazingly there is a path for the Packers. They need to win out for sure but if they win this week and beat the Dolphins in Miami next week, they host the Vikings and Lions in Green Bay to end the year. Would anyone be shocked if they won out? That would put them at 9-8 and they just might sneak in. After this week the Commanders still have to play the 49ers and Cowboys so even if they win, they likely finish 9-7-1 which would only be a game ahead of the Packers. But if they lose to the Giants, then the Packers would be ahead in the scenario. Similarly, the Giants play the Vikings, Colts and Eagles after this week. I doubt they beat anyone but the Colts. So they could easily finish 8-8-1. The more I think about it, the more I think the Packers are getting in. They have looked better lately and should be a little healthier coming off the bye. Rodgers can still sling it and he has found his new favorite target in Christian Watson (who if you haven’t been reading is on all 3 of my fantasy teams). They can run the ball and are decent enough on defense to stop the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams have new life with Baker at the helm. But they are still an overall disaster. You know if you need Baker to give you life, you aren’t very good. They have so many injuries and they spent so much money on free agents and resigning their top players that they have no quality depth. Also as fun as Baker was last Thursday, he still was only good for like a drive and a half. He also may actually play better when he knows less. Take away all decisions and thinking and he is pretty good. But now he will have an whole week and a half to get ready. So my guess is he resorts to his old Baker ways. But hey, it was one fun game when he ruined the Raiders lives.

On the other side does it get weirder than Aaron Rodgers? Has there been an odder superstar in a major sport? Dude, doesn’t talk to his family, does hallucinates, grows his hair out weird, dates celebrities and hosts jeopardy. Baker is weird too. He runs around and head butts people wearing helmets when his helmet is off. He often tweets and says weird things and they both make funny commercials. This really is a battle of two weirdos.

In the end, I don’t think what Baker did on one drive is sustainable. I think that he had a nice moment that we all enjoyed but now will go back to good old inconsistent, mostly bad Baker. Meanwhile, the Packers are way too talented to be 5-8. I think they are primed to make a run at the playoffs. And it starts on Monday night.

Packers 31 Rams 13